Forecast of medical resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine based on GM(1,1) model

WEI Liu-si, ZHANG Xin-hua, LING Chun-qing, ZENG Liu-yan

Soft Science of Health ›› 2019, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9) : 66-70.

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Soft Science of Health ›› 2019, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9) : 66-70. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2800.2019.09.014

Forecast of medical resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine based on GM(1,1) model

  • WEI Liu-si, ZHANG Xin-hua, LING Chun-qing, ZENG Liu-yan
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Abstract

Objective To forecast the demand of traditional Chinese medicine medical resources and services demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan so as to provide data reference for the effective realization of the 13th Five-Year Plan of traditional Chinese medicine. Methods Established grey prediction GM(1,1) model by MATLAB 2018 programming to forecast. Results During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,Chinese traditional medicine medical resources and service demand kept increasing status,but the growth rate showed decreasing trend compared with the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Based on forecast result,the number of beds in TCM hospitals will reach 1268850 in 2020,and the number of institutions will be 5296,which is higher than indicators of 1136000,4867. The total number of discharged patients was 37.856 million,and the total number of visits was 1.249027 billion person-time,which is lower than the expected value of 43.2652 million discharge and 1.349 billion visits. Conclusions The prediction equation established by MATLAB 2018 can achieve C<0.35%,P =1,matching effect is good. It is efficacious investment gross of traditional Chinese medicine resource,but low utilization efficiency leads to insufficiency of effective service output,which is the key factor that restricts the development of traditional Chinese medicine,we should pay attention to the resource overall planning and coordinated development of input and output efficiency. Increase the financial input level of talent team construction of TCM. Optimize the construction of traditional Chinese medicine service capacity. Stimulate the potential service demand of traditional Chinese medicine in the fields of medical treatment,recovery,health and fitness,nurse in grass root and community health care so as to improve the output of effective service.

Key words

traditional Chinese medicine resources / service demand / grey prediction model

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WEI Liu-si, ZHANG Xin-hua, LING Chun-qing, ZENG Liu-yan. Forecast of medical resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine based on GM(1,1) model[J]. Soft Science of Health, 2019, 33(9): 66-70 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-2800.2019.09.014

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